Akeso Revisited: From Local Leader to Global Contender

Disciplined execution, clinical milestones, and global deal momentum fuel investor conviction in China's rising biotech star.

Akeso (9926 HK) has emerged as one of the standout performers in the China biotech recovery, delivering a 154.7% YTD return and outpacing both the KURE index and Hang Seng. The company’s strength lies in its focus on first- and best-in-class bispecific antibodies—particularly Cadonilimab and Ivonescimab—supported by NRDL inclusion, disciplined cost control, and maturing global partnerships.

Recent consensus revisions show near-term revenue expectations for 2025 have pulled back, but long-term forecasts for 2027 remain steady. Analysts appear to be recalibrating short-term launch curves while maintaining confidence in Akeso’s eventual margin expansion and international execution. The company’s ability to cut 2025 R&D spending while maintaining robust 2027 investment further supports this thesis.

Key catalysts in 2025–26 include global Phase III data readouts for Ivonescimab, commercial ramp-up from NRDL-listed therapies, and potential approvals for psoriasis and immunology assets. A rumored AstraZeneca-Summit partnership could dramatically expand global commercialization potential.

Analysts are increasingly bullish, shifting from early 2025 skepticism to a more constructive view, citing clinical differentiation, cost discipline, and a visible path to profitability. Akeso is no longer just a China growth story—it’s evolving into a globally relevant, earnings-generating biotech platform.

Risks to Watch

Execution risk remains high, particularly around global commercialization of Ivonescimab and pipeline depth beyond core assets. Regulatory uncertainty, China-specific pricing pressures, and increased competition from domestic and multinational biotechs may temper upside. Delays or weaker-than-expected readouts from key 2025 trials could also challenge sentiment and valuation momentum.

Cadaques, Spain. Hartaj Singh, Spring 2023

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Coming Up on The Biotech Capital Compass

August 2025 – FDA in Flux

This August, The Biotech Capital Compass (BCC) returns to the topic of FDA leadership and regulatory stability, issues that continue to reverberate across the BioPharma landscape.

In the wake of Dr. Peter Marks’ departure, and now Dr. Prasad’s exit from CBER, we’ve seen a string of high-level resignations and growing uncertainty inside the FDA. With more regulatory decisions under scrutiny and timelines facing increasing delays, it’s an ideal moment to take another temperature check on the agency that sits at the center of therapeutic innovation.

We’ll speak with another seasoned FDA insider to explore what these changes might mean for drug development, industry oversight, and investor confidence.

Stay tuned…

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Biotech Capital Compass: August Newsletter

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About the Author

Hartaj Singh brings over 30 years of experience in drug development, corporate strategy, hedge fund management, and biotech analysis. With a career spanning top investment banks, Hartaj has been a highly ranked analyst, known for providing astute guidance on biotech investments for over a decade. His deep sector knowledge, honed through years of navigating the biotech landscape, is now being put to use to help investors capitalize on biotech opportunities.